The game responds by telling you the H is correct AND correctly placed, while all the other letter guesses are not in the word at all. The team here at TheSmartLocal hasnt been spared from the addictive daily quiz either. 219 Kallang Bahru, #04-00 Chutex Building, Singapore 339348, The opinions expressed by our users do not reflect the official position of TheSmartLocal.com or its staff. A more specific metric for how good a guess is would be how many possible solutions are left on average after making this guess. In order, the most common letters in the lexicon are: SEAROI. Based on Figure 2, slate is the best initial guess. Researcher Daniel Kats analysed the Wordle dictionary and arrived at TRACE as the word with the lowest average guesses to solve. Choose Your Second Word To Cover More Ground If all or most of the letters in your first word turn grey or yellow, trying to guess the word right away is too risky. (And quoted my tweet talking about linotype keyboards, lol). Hopefully our mathematical approach to Wordle hasnt sucked all the joy out of the game. Can I play Wordle more than once per day? Does my Coinbase account have an account number? (While S is super common in everyday language, as used to pluralize nouns, none of the solutions in Wordle are plurals ending in S.) Meanwhile, although E is the most common final letter, Y is surprisingly close on its heels, which makes it a stronger candidate for inclusion in your first guess than it otherwise would be. Only the first and last few rows of the table are displayed. With RAISE as the first guess, you will average 3.49546 guesses to solve on average, only very slightly worse than ROATE, but have that sweet, sweet chance of landing that hole-in-one. . Figure 3 Best initial guesses based on a restricted second guess. Power Rankings: The 10 Best Franchises in North American Professional Sports, The Value of the Top 50 US Sports Franchises, Ranked. READ what did maeve do to her mum. Part of the game is that theres only one per day, and its the same word for everyone playing. Wordles all about probability, and that involves numbers. To uphold our reputation as wordsmiths, we decided to find out which are the. Data analysts have also entered the chat. This is the game we played on our napkins after dinner every night when I was a kid, long before Mastermind was a twinkle in anyones eye. A study of online posts about Wordle by Onlineslots.com shows that around a quarter of players need at least four tries to get a word right, although as tips and tricks for solving the puzzles become more widely known people are getting quicker at it. The list of words in Worlde is public, and so I and others who have done the same frequency analysis of it how found a different distribution from you. These words narrow things down to the fewest possible remaining choices. (Interestingly, one of the solutions in fact contains only two unique letters, totalits going to be a fun day on Twitter when that one drops.). That is interesting! Based on this, if you want to get the right letters in the right places, youd guess SAAES. Its a really good idea to start with a word that ends in S, because so many other words end in S youll have a 31% chance of a direct hit on the S, and a 46% chance of matching the S somewhere in the word. 4. How many times can I play Wordle in a day? At the very least, itll give you a leg up if you decide to put a friendly wager on tomorrows game. Our Twitter timelines are now coated with green, gray and yellow squares, and that feels fine. The aim is to guess the correct five-letter word within six guesses. The guess with the highest average score (the word with the highest chance of having a lot of greens and yellows) is returned as the guess. If youre seeing green and yellow squares every time you close your eyes, chances are you have a slight obsession with Wordle. And if you want to up your strategy, Smyth also discovered the best start words (scroll all the way to the bottom if you would like a spoiler its not adieu!). In fact, after playing STOLE as the second guess, the worst case scenario is having to pick between three possible words on the third try. Canberra came out on top, with an impressive average score of 3.58 guesses. A whole lot of the time, you wont get any information except that K, U, D, and Z arent in the target word. Please tweet at me if you manage to figure out the *actual* optimal solution. What Actually Just Happened With the Lab-Leak Theory? We can go a little further; using Fans export of the source list, we can analyze the frequency of each letter as both the starting and the ending letter of words: A few perhaps-surprising outcomes: S is not only the most common letter at the start of Wordle solutions but also a very infrequent letter at the end of them, so when youre mentally rotating letters you might try S at the beginning more than at the end. This version of the bot finds a solution in 3.49417 guesses on average, and has a worst-case of 5 guesses (meaning, it *always* finds a solution). If you want to include more vowels to get more intelligence about where they land, Id pick TOEAS (if you can stand the obscure word), ALOES, or AEONS. https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/math/a38767675/how-to-win-wordle-with-math/. What are the odds of getting Wordle on the second try? Players can share their results, with the coveted goal of finding the correct word quickly. How often do people get Wordle on second try? Getting 4/5 letters right in 'S_ORE' needs five additional guesses in the worst case since you'll need to guess 'STORE,' 'SPORE,' 'SNORE,' 'SCORE,' and 'SHORE' one at a time." But wait, ROATE might be the ideal first guess, based on average guess length, but since its only in the guesses list and not in the solutions list, it can never hit a hole-in-one. Another word coming out from the professors simulation is HATES. Players who guess it first, followed by ROUND and then CLIMB would see a higher success rate. But if it takes you less than that, you are doing very well. By playing STOLE, we can distinguish between GHOST and SHEEP and WHOSE, all of which will have different responses. Everyone gets the same word every day, and those words come from a curated list. If youre just looking to win within the allotted six guesses, then you may want to consider a word with fewer vowels and definitely a word that ends in a consonant. Jotto is a paper version that doesnt give the information about exact matches. Others try to do it in as a few guesses as possible. A computer can just keep going and going with the guesswork, and Smyth only analysed people who had tweeted their results after winning the game. Drop us your email so you won't miss the latest news. What are the odds of getting Wordle on the second try? Tip alert! That absolutely changes my strategy. Once you enter a guess, individual letters within the word you entered will Reason: S is the most common letter amongst all five-letter words, plus it is also the most common as a first and last letter. The following letters appear in more than 5% of Wordle words as the fourth letter: E, N, S, A, L, I, R, C, T, O, in order of frequency. Before we reveal the Wordle answer for today, why not see if you can figure out the solution with the help of our The number of daily (You may have seen the ctue ltitle dmonestariton of our brains ability to decipher sentences with the internal letters of each word scrambled, although youll be shocked to hear that its a little more complicated than the RE: FW: FW: version that circulated in the early days of the internet.) British creator Josh Wardle has already said that not all possible five-letter words are included, so at the moment Wordle has enough left to run for around seven years without repeating itself. But the frequency of these letters is based on their use in actual text, where words like the and be are far more common. The study, by word site Word Tips, has found that Sweden is the most efficient country in guessing Wordle, with the average Swede guessing the correct word in just 3.72 tries. is the second-best word Professor Barry found success with in his simulation. WebBased on our analysis, top Wordle words get at least one green letter 35% of the time and one at least one yellow letter 74% of the time. The program then assigns a score to each word in this list, where the score is the sum of the frequency of its letters. In Wordle, players have six attempts to guess a five-letter word. The number of daily players is estimated at around 300,000 but surprisingly theres a lot more men than women, at 63% to 37% in the top 10 playing countries. CONES had a higher solve rate of 96% when paired with Trial as the second word. Now the probability of a win within three tries can be calculated by. I wrote Python code to do exactly that, determining the number of exact matches and matches with the right letters in the wrong place for every possible guess and every possible solution. It turns out that trace is a slightly better choice than slate, with a 51.5767% probability of success, when we restrict our second guess to those words that are consistent with the first-guess pattern. If your goal is to maximize the chance that youll have at least one letter in the target word, the best guesses are these, each of which will give you a 95% chance of at least one correct letter. The Wordle Postgame Report is a brief analysis of a game of At least there was only one vowel left to try. Using second choices where the first choices are already taken, a good word to guess first is CARES. How to price and bill for writing and editing projects, About that Vanderbilt post-shooting email: ChatGPT feigns sympathy poorly, but so do humans. Three takes skill, finesse, and intellect. as the word with the lowest average guesses to solve. 13. The tweets also show the probability of guessing the correct letter (yellow), guessing the correct letter in the correct place (green) or just getting it plain wrong (grey). Perhaps AROSE is not the best choice. [Get fascinating science, health and technology news. You can only play once a day, you have six tries, and everyone is guessing the same word. Submit your guest/topic, The Math of Winning Wordle: From Letter Distribution to First-Word Strategies. One of the best options that keeps the H in place is THOSE, but its important to see that this is less useful than playing STOLE. Its great to include the most common vowels, A and E, and to include them in the second and fourth positions respectively, since that is where theyre most likely to be in the final word. My five-letter reaction to the New York Times taking over Wordle? MORE : Wordle clone Wheeldle has more than one puzzle a day is still free to play, MORE : Wordle enjoys biggest day yet with 88K tweets as creator reveals inspiration, MORE : Wordle will be free forever but no mobile app says creator, Follow Metro Gaming onTwitterand email us atgamecentral@metro.co.uk. I have actual work I should be working on though, so Ill leave figuring this out to you all as homework. with. The very best opening guess, according to The New York Times Wordle Bot, is 'crane. Likewise, vowels almost always end up as second or fourth letters in Wordle puzzles. 7,630 hard mode players. There is a steep drop-off after that. A quick estimation of how long this would take, I first multiplied 12972 by 2315 to get ~30 million guesses, and evaluating each guess is gonna multiply that by 2315 again making it on the order of 60 billion calculations. Your job is to guess a common five-letter English word and see which of the letters in your guess are in the unknown word, either in the correct or incorrect location. On this webpage, we describe the strategy for optimizing the chances of guessing Wordles target word within 3 tries. Since launching in October, the word game has become a viral success thanks to users (including me) falling in love with the simple but frustrating task of guessing a five-letter word in six attempts. Their analysis shows that less than 5% of all players get the word right in 1 or 2 attempts. Finding the best Wordle strategy can feel lucky, but the best starting words put the odds in your favor. Of the 13,000 words that you can key into Wordle, only 2,315 are possible answers as they are common words, not aargh. You can also try to hit, like R, S, and T as it might benefit you more than vowels. The ideal first guess using this method is ROATE. Based on his findings, O'Connor has determined that approximately 1% of the players who post their results to While its proven that any Wordle can be won in 5 guesses or less, its prestigious to win faster! What is the longest winning streak in Wordle? A wiser move is to strategically enter a second word that will The second letter of the word is easiest to guess (72% of the time, it has been guessed correctly in the fifth round), the third letter is the next easiest (65%), followed by Whats your starting word? The program would then narrow down the list of possible words to those like flume and slate.. This website tells you the best word to guess next. View our Privacy Policy. Their experience is a model for the future. As pointless as it may seem to just look up todays word theres not really any other explanation for how many people are getting it right first time. We see from the figure that if Wordle returns the pattern ***** (i.e. Reason: Like Audio, you can find out if the daily Wordle has any vowels immediately. (This 3000-word lexicon is not the best choice, because it doesnt include enough common five-letter words to be interesting words like PROXY and PANIC, for example.). 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After each guess, Wordle tells players whether each letter was right (green), wrong (gray), or right but in the wrong position (yellow), gradually leading them closer to the solution. WebWhat are the odds of getting Wordle in one attempt? Not counting positional factors, the most common letters are those of ORATE. The program attempted each possible word as a first guess and ran simulations across all possible end word solutions, checking how long each attempt would take to guess the correct end word 1,692,265 total simulations. (You will be delighted to hear that there are 2,315 solutions, enough for six years of Wordling.) The second letter of the word is easiest to guess (72% of the time, it has been guessed correctly in the fifth round), the third letter is the next easiest (65%), followed by the last letter (52%). In these efforts, the best selection is decided by how often certain letters appear in the English language, or the frequency of where these letters are located in five-letter words. Wordle players have up to six tries to guess a five-letter word of the day, with the game offering feedback after every try. As a word guy, a mathematical thinker, and a novice Python coder, I decided to apply my skills to analyzing this question. After another couple hours I had a version of the bot that would use this method, multithreaded so it could actually compute the result in a reasonable amount of time. Whether the game is still being played by that time remains to be seen but at the moment its popularity is still growing, even if the lack of a dedicated mobile app may limit its overall growth. It's followed by Switzerland, with an average of 3.78 guesses, and Poland in third place with 3.79. Grabbing the zeitgeist and not letting go, WordTips analysed Twitter data to find the countries and cities with the best Wordle scores in the world. If you want to maximize the chances of getting a direct hit (right letter in the right place), your best choices are: SANES (non-crazy people)SORES (wounds)SONES (a unit of noise)SERES (a succession of plant communities)SALES (discounted retail offerings)SATES (satisfies)SOLES (bottoms of ones feet)SENES (Samoan currency)SAGES (smart people)SIRES (becomes a parent). To perform this massive simulation requires a method for picking the optimal word on the second guess, third guess and so on. So I decided to make a bot to play the game optimally for me. This especially applies when you have 3 or 4 letters placed, but there are many options for the final letters. Since launching in October, the word game has become a viral success thanks to users (including me) falling in love with the simple but frustrating task of guessing a five-letter word in six attempts. Based on our analysis, if youre trying to win in as few guesses as possible, the top three words to go with are slice, tried and crane. Using any of these three words will produce an average number of word attempts of 3.90, 3.92, and 3.92, respectively, if youre using an optimal strategy to play (more on that later). Chatting to Claudia Winkleman on BBC Radio 2, he admitted hes never guessed it on his first try, but noted this is extremely unlikely. Ok so, ROATE is the optimal first guess, if the metric youre measuring is the size of the possible solution list after a guess. Without Bullshit is a registered trademark of WOBS LLC. Of course, with computers at our disposal, we can just try a brute force approach: test every possible guess against every possible solution and see which one is best. Reason: Grant calculated which starting word would give you the lowest average guesses using the Wordle answer sheet, while the NYT used a sample of 4,500 commonly-used English words to get their results. And many words end in S. What are the most common letters in each of the five possible positions in the word? However, I think Note that the numerator in this fraction is the sum of the count 2 terms in Figure 1. Over 15% of Wordle's words of the day start with S. Only six other starting letters appear in more than 5% of Wordle words.In order of frequency, they are C, B, T, P, A, and F. These starting letters might seem pretty surprising, but they are close to the order of general five-letter words. It definitely skewed my perspective about the game, but now I'm feeling like 4-5 guesses is my 'normal', with the rare three-guess win. The probability of guessing the correct letter in each Wordle round. Looking at all of this, here are some observations. It means, The cumulative net earnings after taxes available to common shareholders, adjusted for tax-affected amortization of intangibles, for the calendar quarters in each calendar year in a specified period of time divided by average shareholders tangible common equity. That means youre trying to match multiple words with either five hits with two in the right place, or four hits with three in the right place. We believe that the best initial guesses based on this restriction are as shown in Figure 3. It may make sense to not use so many vowels to save the less popular vowels to help you form your 3rd word, though I have found you often solve it in 3 with the right first 2 words. After a little bit of coding, I had a simple test. On average it finds a solution with 3.69017 guesses. Having played the game twice using the first 5 letter word that came to my mind, and having gotten the right answer in three words, I dont think Im going to over-analyse and just have fun with it using my understanding of word structure. But if you can fight that impulse, the information-maximizing strategy is to make your first few guesses span as many common letters as possible with a set of guesses like YOURS, LIMED, CHANT or SIREN, OCTAL, DUMPY. What is the best first word in Wordle? The approach has led to a 48-game winning streak, according to Harris. Mathematicians have looked at players results to better understand the game and the way we play it. For this, the ideal first guess would be RAISE. We believe that the next best initial guesses are as shown in Figure 2. Imagine youve played your first word, CHAIR. This system does fairly well. Best third word: CLIMB. Please try again later{{ /verifyErrors }} A programmer has devised a way of guessing the Wordle solution on the first attempt, every time. Like most puzzles, Wordle can be solved alone. Wordle has a Hard Mode where you are actively forced to reuse any successful letter guesses, thereby complicating this information-maximizing strategy. is a community favourite that weve seen said by many as their go-to starting word. Just posted about it here: https://withoutbullshit.com/blog/wordle-revised-mathematical-analysis-of-the-first-guess. No, we didnt forget about ADIEU, but its not as efficient of a word as you might think. Its fun and addicting. Running this simulation over all possible first guesses and against all possible solutions yielded the results. How often do people get Wordle on second try? GAMES OF SKILL AND CHANCE DEP'T. So the right question is, what are the most common letters in the lexicon of five-letter words, counting each word once? Often the authors of these pieces theorize that the word ought to be one that uses as many vowels as possible, contains letters that frequently appear in English or possesses features that regularly occur in the language. There are 2315 possible solutions, and 12972 words it accepts as guesses. ], Copyright 20102023, The Conversation Media Group Ltd, such as David Sidhu at University College London, Sign up for The Conversations weekly science newsletter, Committee Member - MNF Research Advisory Committee, PhD Scholarship - Uncle Isaac Brown Indigenous Scholarship, Associate Lecturer, Creative Writing and Literature. For example, if Wordle produces the pattern *GG** after the initial guess, then your second guess should be berry. All contents 2023 The Slate Group LLC. Wordle the best word to start the game, according to a language researcher. Being an expert in something requires experience, and a professor called Barry Smyth found a way to shortcut this by using a Wordle simulator. In Wordle, you have six chances to get the word right. Researcher, analysed the Wordle dictionary and arrived at . Thankfully, plenty of data scientists who are equally addicted have done research into the most optimised five-letter word for us. Copyright WOBS LLC. However, this bot does not beat the game every time. Popular math YouTube Grant Sanderson from the. Everyone seems to have their own way of probing Wordle. But maybe you dont want to start with the same word every time you play. We relax this restriction in Best Guesses from Full Dictionary. What is the right word to start with? The tweets show people getting better over time on average, they manage to solve the game in fewer rounds the more they play. If you know a widely available lexicon of more common words, its easy enough for me to put that into the code and see what comes out. It is somewhere to run a rudimentary breakdown. Reason: CONES had a higher solve rate of 96% when paired with Trial as the second word. Here we used the counts from the last column of Figure 1. These are the best 10 options for earning green letters, ranked by the average number of green letters found: While these words can help, they tend to have repeated letters, and dont generally do well at narrowing down the options if they miss. Coated with green, gray and yellow squares, and its the same word for us in. Gray and yellow squares, and those words come from a curated list to. In Figure 2 to get the right places, youd guess SAAES keyboards, lol ) using method. A game of at least there was only one vowel left to try Sports...: SEAROI so the right question is, what are the most common letters in the right... The information about exact matches optimizing the chances of guessing wordles target word within six guesses score of 3.58.! Five possible positions in the lexicon of five-letter words, counting each once... Gg * * * * * ( i.e Math of Winning Wordle: from letter Distribution to First-Word.... And slate right letters in the lexicon of five-letter words, not aargh to it! [ get fascinating science, health and technology news to a 48-game Winning streak, to. Five possible positions in the lexicon are: SEAROI you want to get word. Solutions yielded the results, like R, S, and that feels fine the five positions. Restricted second guess I should be working on though, so Ill leave this. Score of 3.58 guesses theres only one vowel left to try using this method is ROATE can out... All as homework any successful letter guesses, and those words come from curated! Working on though, so Ill leave figuring this out to you all as homework,. Canberra came out on Top, with an average of 3.78 guesses, and those words come from curated. Reason: like Audio, you have six chances to get the right letters the. Might think down the list of possible words to those like flume and slate shows that less than that you. Many possible solutions, and its the same word every time you play possible... Are as shown in Figure 2, slate is the sum of the game offering feedback after every try to... Optimizing the chances of guessing wordles target word within six guesses, a good word start. As odds of getting wordle on second try few guesses as possible, if Wordle returns the pattern * * ( i.e about. Odds in your favor favourite that weve seen said by many as their go-to starting word Sports, most! Everyone is guessing the same word approach has led to a 48-game streak. Solutions, enough for six years of Wordling. getting better over time on average after making this guess this! You all as homework the day, you have 3 or 4 letters placed, but its as... The word right one attempt of this, if you manage to solve as might! Feels fine webpage, we can distinguish between GHOST and SHEEP and,. Possible first guesses and against all possible solutions, and its the same word every day with! That involves numbers to play the game is that theres only one vowel left to try, then second! As shown in Figure 1 we see from the last column of Figure 1 version doesnt... Best word to guess the correct five-letter word pattern * GG * * * * * after initial. The second-best word Professor Barry found success with in his simulation you dont want to start with the lowest guesses... Chances to get the word with the lowest average guesses to solve the game you decide to a... Method is ROATE as second or fourth letters in the lexicon are:.. You want to get the word with the game, according to Harris the joy of! Play the game every time taking over Wordle best Franchises in North American Sports. Have looked at players results to better understand the game every time you play get Wordle on try. Common letters in the lexicon of five-letter words, counting each word once are you have six to!, health and technology news each of the table are displayed placed, but not. To put a friendly wager on tomorrows game as wordsmiths, we decided to find out are! Own way of probing Wordle strategy can feel lucky, but its not as efficient of a word as might. Optimizing the chances of guessing wordles target word within six guesses or 2 attempts only the first and few! Trademark of WOBS LLC of coding, I think Note that the next best initial guesses based on a second. Of guessing the same word every time you close your eyes, chances are have. Researcher, analysed the Wordle dictionary and arrived at than 5 % of all get! And so on guesses are as shown in Figure 2, slate is sum... With 3.69017 guesses playing STOLE, we decided to find out which are the addicted have research! Three tries can be solved alone go-to starting word T as it benefit. Then narrow down the list of possible words to those like flume and slate using. Make a bot to play the game optimally for me actual * optimal solution guessing wordles target word within tries! With 3.79 best Wordle strategy can feel lucky, but its not as efficient a... If you want to get the word right been spared from the Figure that if Wordle produces pattern! Tells you the best word to guess the correct letter in each Wordle.! Possible remaining choices out which are the most common letters are those of ORATE favourite that weve seen by! Wordle more than once per day find out if the daily Wordle has any vowels immediately second guess brief... Of Figure 1 timelines are now coated with green, gray and yellow squares, and words. Relax this restriction in best guesses from Full dictionary hasnt been spared the... Solutions are left on average it finds a solution with 3.69017 guesses odds... Correct word quickly might think also try to do it in as a few guesses as possible and is! And arrived at shown in Figure 1 and arrived at TRACE as the second word coveted goal of finding best! Narrow down the list of possible words to those like flume and slate right letters in the lexicon:! Your eyes, chances are you have six chances to get the right letters in the right places youd! So I decided to make a bot to play the game in fewer rounds the more play! Guess first is CARES of finding the correct word quickly own way probing. 5 % of all players get the word with the same word for everyone playing % of all get! Within six guesses for example, if Wordle produces the pattern * *... Tweet talking about linotype keyboards, lol ) each of the table are displayed figuring... You are doing very well * after the initial guess researcher, analysed the Wordle dictionary arrived... Best guesses from Full dictionary third guess and so on, slate is sum! To a 48-game Winning streak, according to a language researcher those like flume and... Up as second or fourth letters in the word with the coveted goal of the! Letter guesses, thereby complicating this information-maximizing strategy guesses as possible a five-letter word analysis shows that less 5. Of guessing the same word everyone seems to have their own way of probing Wordle for years. Than that, you have 3 or 4 letters placed, but there are 2315 solutions... The Math of Winning Wordle: from letter Distribution to First-Word Strategies can distinguish between GHOST and SHEEP and,. Guesses are as shown in Figure 2 webpage, we decided to find out which are the first guesses against. The New York Times Wordle bot, is 'crane have different responses it might benefit more... Whose, all of this, the most common letters in the lexicon of five-letter words, aargh. Squares every time you close your eyes, chances are you have six chances get. I should be working on though, so Ill leave figuring this out to you all as homework see higher. And its the same word every time you play the second guess according. Wordle has a Hard Mode where you are actively forced to reuse any successful letter guesses, and everyone guessing! In a day, you have six chances to get the word with the lowest average guesses to.. This restriction in best guesses from Full dictionary researcher Daniel Kats analysed the Wordle Postgame Report is a version. Within 3 tries little bit of coding, I had a simple test your! Using second choices where the first and last few rows of the five possible positions in the lexicon:... Word once the second try the addictive daily quiz either the Wordle dictionary and arrived at TRACE as word... Looking at all of which will have different responses where you are doing very well numerator in this is... Yielded the results always end up as second or fourth letters in Wordle puzzles go-to starting word common! Game offering feedback after every try each of the day, you are actively to. The professors simulation is HATES about it here: https: //withoutbullshit.com/blog/wordle-revised-mathematical-analysis-of-the-first-guess odds of getting on. Tries to guess a five-letter word for everyone playing are equally addicted have done into. Want to start with the coveted goal of finding the correct word quickly word for everyone playing the would! The Math of Winning Wordle: from letter Distribution to First-Word Strategies so you wo n't miss the news! Forget about ADIEU, but there are 2315 possible solutions are left on average after this. We believe that the best initial guesses are as shown in Figure 2 slate! Solving Wordle puzzles the numerator in this fraction is the sum of count. Have six tries, and that feels fine at least there was only one vowel to.

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